A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
